Forecast in Two Words: "Death Ridge!"

The forecast for storm chasing over the next 4-8 days can be summed-up in basically two words... "death ridge!"

By that, I mean a broad area of high pressure, which will firmly anchor itself across much of the eastern two-thirds of the country.  Infact, models indicate the jet stream will remain north of the contiguous U.S., which will keep any significant troughs from emerging from the Pacific Northwest, possibly through the remainder of May.

If you are a storm chaser, you crave these troughs of low pressure, because they introduce shots of cooler Canadian air to the Plains, where a warm and moist airmass is typically present this time of year.  With a ridge in place, you have large scale subsidence- sinking air, unfavorable for lift and thus, thunderstorm development.

Infact, an anticyclonic flow is expected for much of the western third of the country through atleast Wednesday.  This will cause winds along the Gulf Coast to be offshore, preventing any moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico.

There is hope, however.  By Friday, a trough will build south and east from Southern Canada, transitioning winds aloft from east to a more southwesterly flow.  Models are already eluding towards the potential for strong storms, with numerous embedded waves of energy ejecting across the Northern Plains through Saturday.

While it remains too early to precisely pinpoint where storms will develop, it appears the StormTrackerWx Team may deploy a couple of days later than originally planned, with sights set on the Northern Plains states.

Stay-tuned!